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American attitudes around home affordability will determine whether Congress treats housing as a priority or as another talking point to be dropped between election cycles.

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Housing affordability isn’t just a financial issue anymore. It’s a political one that I’m predicting will motivate congressional races in ways our congressional representatives can’t ignore.

Only 17 percent of voters say now is a good time to buy a home, compared to 69 percent in 2013; full stop; pause.

More than a market correction, buyer confidence has fallen (and can’t get up) and sits near historic lows. At the same time, 85 percent of voters still say homeownership is the foundation of the American dream, up from 79 percent in 2013. The gap between what Americans believe they should have and what they think they can actually afford has never been wider. What we need is Life Alert for our American dream.

Flashpoint

This disconnect is a flashpoint. ”Availability of affordable housing and the cost of housing rank among the most important issues for voters when deciding how to vote for Congress,” according to a National Association of Realtors survey conducted Jan. 12–14. That’s the foundation of a political statement.

Fifty percent of voters say current federal policies make buying a home harder, while only 9 percent say those same policies make it easier.

When we see unanimity that wide in today’s environment, there lies a pain point and political vulnerability that unifies. This isn’t left versus right. This is our American dream versus our representation.

Blocked

Home prices and mortgage rates are high. Wages haven’t kept pace with housing costs. Economic uncertainty and inflation create hesitation. Limited inventory — especially affordable and starter homes — means there’s nothing to buy even if people could afford it. Investor activity is competing directly with first-time buyers for what little supply exists.

Existing homeowners are stuck, too. Nearly half of homeowners (46 percent) say at least one major barrier is preventing them from moving. Many can’t afford to give up a low mortgage rate locked in previously.

Others want to sell, but the capital gains taxes are prohibitive. Still others look around their neighborhoods and see no affordable options to move into. They’d be selling for $1.2 million only to buy a similar home for $1.5 million, effectively locking them in place.

This creates a secondary market failure: inventory stagnation. When homeowners can’t or won’t move, inventory stays constrained. When inventory is constrained, prices stay elevated. When prices stay elevated, first-time buyers stay locked out. It’s a vicious cycle that no individual actor can break alone. It requires systemic policy intervention.

Congress has the tools

Here’s what surprised me most about this data. Voters aren’t asking for radical solutions. They’re asking for sensible ones.

They support allowing tax-free savings for down payments (84 percent). They back offering a one-time home sale with no capital gains taxes (76 percent). They want expanded capital gains tax thresholds on home sales (67 percent). They support creating incentives for investors to sell homes to first-time buyers (71 percent). They back requiring affordable rental units through tax incentives (71 percent).

What’s striking is the bipartisan nature of this support. This isn’t partisan gridlock. Republicans, Independents and Democrats all back these proposals with similar intensity. When you can get 84 percent agreement on a policy question in today’s environment, you’re looking at something approaching a national consensus.

The survey found that 64 percent of voters say buying or selling a home would become easier if new housing proposals passed. That’s the political opportunity right there. Voters believe Congress can fix this. They believe the tools exist. What they don’t believe is that lawmakers have the will to deploy them.

The political moment

In my work advising municipalities, investors and developers over two decades, one lesson applies equally to politics. When voters tell you they want action and believe you can deliver it, it’s a permission and an obligation.

The next Congress enters office with a clear mandate. Housing affordability is a voting issue, and voters believe it can be solved. The proposals that command 67 percent to 84 percent support aren’t fringe ideas. They’re commonsense policy adjustments that expand supply, lower costs and help families move into homes.

What happens next will determine whether Congress treats housing as a priority or as another talking point to be dropped between election cycles. Based on the political calculus, the choice should be obvious. But as anyone who’s worked in government knows, obvious and “actually implemented” can be ships passing in the night.

The ball is in Congress’s court. Voters have said what they want. The only question now is whether lawmakers will listen or whether they’ll prove that the half of voters who say federal policy is making things worse were right all along.

America Foy is a broker associate at The Grubb Co. Connect with him on LinkedIn and Instagram.

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