Agents and leaders have long been skeptical of Compass’ bid to disrupt local MLSs. But the latest proposal might have legs, according to an Intel Index survey.
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In survey after Intel survey, agents and leaders at non-Compass brokerages have expressed deep skepticism about CEO Robert Reffkin’s years-long bid to wrest control of listing data from local MLSs.
So when Reffkin took to the stage last month at Inman Connect New York, the vision he floated of a national MLS seemed carefully crafted to allay those concerns.
Under Reffkin’s new proposal, a nationwide coalition of brokerages would share data with each other via a new, jointly owned listing platform. This platform would have “no disproportionate ownership” by Compass, he said, and would be governed by an independent board.
This proposed structure appears to have captured the attention of leaders and agents across the brokerage spectrum, an analysis of Intel’s February survey responses suggests. And while many are skeptical of Compass’ motivations in proposing it, most survey respondents said they could be won over if the details were right.
Although professionals from all brokerage types responded to February’s survey, this analysis focuses especially on the groups that Reffkin most needs to persuade in order to make such a platform a reality: the agents and leaders at competitor brokerages, many of whom are wary of Compass gaining an even greater foothold in real estate.
And early signs are that this proposal might have legs.
In the full report, read about what would need to happen for the industry to jump fully on board.
An industry, intrigued
Agents at Compass are already lining up in support of the idea, according to February’s survey results.
But Reffkin would need leaders at other brokerages to sign on in order to get this off the ground, and those leaders would likely want broad support from their agents to entertain a project of this scope.
For these reasons, Intel spent the most time examining how non-Compass agents responded to questions about the proposed structure.
Question:
- “Compass CEO Robert Reffkin recently proposed replacing local MLSs with a single national MLS owned by a coalition of brokerages. He said that Compass would have “no disproportionate ownership,” and that the platform would be governed by an independent board. Setting aside who proposed it, does this structure appeal to you?”
Response shares, agents unaffiliated with Compass:
- 18% — Yes, this is the right path forward.
- 39% — Yes, I’m open to this structure, but need to see more details.
- 22% — No, I’m not a fan of this idea, but the right plan could change my mind.
- 21% — No, this takes the industry in the wrong direction.
This means that even among the agent respondents who were not affiliated with Compass, 57 percent showed outright interest in this proposed structure, even if some questions remained unanswered. And only 21 percent indicated that they were completely closed to the idea.
Leadership at non-Compass brokerages expressed a similar degree of interest in the proposal as their agents, although the “hard no” camp was a bit bigger at 30 percent.
Unsurprisingly, longtime Compass agents were even more supportive of the idea. And agents with recently acquired Anywhere brands landed somewhere in between.
The resulting picture is one of an industry in which broad ranges of agents are open to having this discussion, including those outside of Compass. But it’s also one where Reffkin and Compass would have to go to great lengths to ensure the structure benefited all brokerages.
Winners and losers
One of the biggest obstacles that proponents of a national MLS face is a perception that the platform would actually serve the interests of Compass over those of the broader brokerage industry.
Here’s how agents at competitors to Compass described the most likely impact of such a platform on brokerage competition.
Question:
- “If brokerages built a national MLS platform like the one Reffkin described, which of the following most accurately describes the likely outcome?”
Response shares, agents unaffiliated with Compass:
- 30% — The vast majority of brokerages would be better off.
- 32% — Companies like Compass would gain a competitive advantage, while smaller brokerages would have less say over how their data is used.
- 10% — The vast majority of brokerages, including Compass, would be worse off if the industry moved away from local MLSs.
- 10% — It would not meaningfully impact brokerage success or competition.
- 18% — Other (written response)
This concern appears to largely explain why many non-Compass agents and leaders — even those who find the idea of a brokerage-owned national MLS appealing — are reluctant to give a blank check to the project.
Broker-owners and executives at non-Compass firms were even more likely to say that Reffkin’s national MLS structure would likely provide Compass with a competitive advantage, despite the CEO’s claims about the board being independent. This is a chief concern that Reffkin would need to address.
But the concerns didn’t stop there.
Is it a Zillow beater?
One thing that broad swaths of agents and brokerage leaders agree on is that a brokerage-owned listing platform would be likely to mount a real challenge to Zillow, whose data comes mostly from contracts with various local MLSs.
Still, some differences in confidence were observed.
Question:
- “If brokerages teamed up to create their own national MLS, how likely do you think the new platform would be to replace Zillow as the most-used real estate portal by consumers?”
Response shares, Compass+Anywhere agents
- 42% — Very likely
- 35% — Somewhat likely
- 18% — Somewhat unlikely
- 5% — Very unlikely
Response shares, agents unaffiliated with Compass:
- 22% — Very likely
- 37% — Somewhat likely
- 27% — Somewhat unlikely
- 18% — Very unlikely
While a majority of non-Compass agents (59 percent) thought it was likely that such a project would succeed at supplanting Zillow with consumers, that share was lower than inside Compass’ operation (77 percent).
Leadership responses on this question were closely aligned with agent sentiment.
It’s clear from these results that any proposal would have to address many issues and appease many competing factions before the brokerage world could get fully behind it.
But for agents who want to see a post-Zillow real estate industry, Reffkin’s proposal appears to be an appealing starting point.
Methodology notes: This month’s Inman Intel Index survey ran from Feb. 19-26 and received 914 responses. The entire Inman reader community was invited to participate, and a rotating, randomized selection of community members was prompted to participate by email. Users responded to a series of questions related to their self-identified corner of the real estate industry — including real estate agents, brokerage leaders, lenders and proptech entrepreneurs. Results reflect the opinions of the engaged Inman community, which may not always match those of the broader real estate industry. This survey is conducted monthly.
Email Daniel Houston
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