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As mortgage rates stabilize and fewer owners hold ultra-low loans, the lock-in effect may be losing its grip.
By
Choncé Maddox
published
28 January 2026
in Features
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For much of the past three years, the U.S. housing market has felt frozen in place. Millions of homeowners who locked in mortgage rates below 3% during the pandemic-era boom have been reluctant to sell, knowing that any move would likely mean trading a historically low monthly payment for a far more expensive one. That dynamic, known as the "lock-in effect", has been one of the biggest forces constraining housing supply.
But new data and early 2026 market signals suggest that the grip of that effect may be starting to loosen.
Mortgage rates have eased from their 2023 peaks, even if they remain well above the ultra-low levels of the pandemic years. At the same time, more homeowners now carry mortgages closer to today's rates than to yesterday's bargains. Together, those shifts are starting to change both the financial math of moving and, for some sellers, the mindset around whether it finally makes sense to list.
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Sign upWhat the lock-in effect is, and why it matters
The lock-in effect refers to the financial hit homeowners take when their existing mortgage rate is far lower than what's available in the current market. If you bought or refinanced in 2020 or 2021, there’s a good chance your rate is under 3%. Even after the recent easing, today's rates are still hovering in the low-6% range.
That gap can translate into a dramatic jump in monthly payments. For many households, moving would mean paying 50% or more for a similar-priced home, simply because of the higher interest rate. The result has been fewer people listing their homes, which in turn has kept inventory tight and prices elevated in many markets.
Low turnover doesn't just affect buyers. It also limits job mobility, downsizing options for retirees and the ability of growing families to move up to larger homes.
More homeowners now hold higher-rate mortgages
A January 2026 analysis from Realtor.com highlighted a milestone that hints at a shift in the market's underlying dynamics: for the first time since the pandemic-era boom, the share of outstanding mortgages with rates above 6% now exceeds the share with rates below 3%.
That may sound like a technical detail, but it carries real implications. It means a growing portion of homeowners are no longer sitting on once-in-a-generation rates. Instead, their existing loans are closer to what they’d face if they sold and bought again.
In practical terms, the "penalty" for moving is shrinking for this group. While trading one 6% mortgage for another still isn’t painless, it’s a far cry from giving up a 2.7% rate and replacing it with something more than twice as high.
Why the lock-in effect has been so powerful
The sheer scale of the pandemic refinancing wave made the lock-in effect unusually strong. In 2020 and 2021, homeowners rushed to lock in ultra-low rates, pushing the average 30-year mortgage rate below 3% for months at a time.
That created a massive pool of households with monthly payments that are, by historical standards, exceptionally cheap. When rates surged in 2022 and 2023, the financial logic of staying put became overwhelming.
For many sellers, it wasn't just about paying a little more. It was about hundreds or even thousands of dollars a month in additional housing costs. That reality kept listings scarce, even as buyer demand ebbed and flowed with rate changes. Higher insurance premiums, property taxes and everyday living costs only made the prospect of moving feel even riskier.
Signs the lock-in is loosening
Several indicators suggest the market may be entering a new phase.
First, as the Realtor.com data shows, more homeowners now carry mortgages above 6%. That means fewer people are anchored by rock-bottom rates, and more are closer to today’s market reality.
Second, mortgage rates themselves have settled into a narrower range. While still elevated compared to pre-pandemic norms, they've come down from their highs, making the jump from an existing loan to a new one feel less extreme for some households.
Finally, lenders are seeing modest upticks in mortgage applications and refinances, a sign that more buyers and homeowners are at least testing the waters. It's not a surge, but it does suggest that activity is stirring after a long period of stagnation.
If you're curious about today's rates, use the tool below, powered by Bankrate, to explore and compare some of today's top offers:
Affordability pressures persist
None of this means the housing market has suddenly become cheap.
Even with rates easing, they remain well above the levels that fueled the buying frenzy of 2020 and 2021. Home prices, meanwhile, have stayed resilient in many regions due to limited inventory and strong underlying demand.
For first-time buyers in particular, monthly payments still consume a large portion of their income. Higher insurance costs, property taxes and maintenance expenses add to the strain, reinforcing hesitation even as more listings trickle onto the market.
In other words, a fading lock-in effect may help with supply, but it doesn’t solve the broader affordability challenge on its own.
Regional variations in the lock-in effect
The impact of the lock-in effect isn’t uniform across the country.
In coastal and high-cost markets, where home prices, and therefore mortgage balances, are larger, the difference between a 3% rate and a 6% rate can be staggering. That has kept many would-be sellers on the sidelines, especially in parts of California, the Northeast and major metro areas.
In more affordable regions, particularly across the Midwest and parts of the Northeast, the payment gap tends to be smaller in absolute dollar terms. That has allowed inventory to circulate a bit more freely, even during periods of higher rates.
These regional differences help explain why some markets are already seeing more listings and price moderation, while others remain tightly constrained.
Life changes vs. financial math
Another force quietly weakening the lock-in effect is time. Life doesn't stop for mortgage rates. Job changes, growing families, divorce, retirement and health considerations all create pressure to move, regardless of what the financial math says.
At the same time, many longtime homeowners are sitting on significant home equity after years of price appreciation. That equity can soften the blow of a higher rate, especially for sellers who plan to downsize or relocate to more affordable areas.
For this group, the decision increasingly becomes less about securing the perfect interest rate and more about finding a home that fits their next stage of life.
What this means for buyers and sellers
For buyers, a gradual easing of the lock-in effect could translate into more choice. Even a modest increase in listings can reduce competition and, in some markets, temper price growth.
For sellers, the conversation is shifting. Instead of focusing solely on the rate they'd be giving up, more homeowners are weighing lifestyle goals, equity gains and long-term plans.
Mortgage rate forecasts also play a role. If rates briefly dip below 6% later this year, as some predict, that psychological threshold could nudge more buyers and sellers off the sidelines at the same time.
Where the housing market goes from here
The lock-in effect hasn’t vanished and millions of homeowners still hold mortgages that are far cheaper than anything available today. But its hold on the market appears to be loosening.
As rates stabilize and the composition of outstanding mortgages continues to change, the housing market in 2026 may regain some of the mobility it's been missing. More listings won’t solve every affordability problem, but they could help thaw a market that’s been stuck in place for far too long.
For both buyers and sellers, that movement alone could be a sign that the long freeze is finally starting to break.
Related Content:
- How Does the 10-Year Treasury Yield Affect Mortgage Rates?
- How the Federal Reserve Affects Mortgage Rates — and What It Means for Homebuyers in 2026
- I Made Some Mistakes Buying My First Home. Here's How I'm Making Sure It Doesn't Happen Again
Choncé MaddoxSocial Links NavigationPersonal finance writerChoncé is a personal finance freelance writer who enjoys writing about eCommerce, savings, banking, credit cards, and insurance. Having a background in journalism, she decided to dive deep into the world of content writing in 2013 after noticing many publications transitioning to digital formats. She has more than 10 years of experience writing content and graduated from Northern Illinois University.
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